Monday 15 February 2016

Pulte Homes Is A Dead Business

With unemployment up, deficit up, interest rate up, cost of basic needs like electricity & water up, even though 1st time buyers are supposed to get $8000 credit, nobody mentioned that you need to make less than $75,000/yr to get it; I find it hard to imagine that these homebuilders will survive this environment. No wonder they even knocked down some unfinished projects.

"U.S. unemployment rate in April hit 8.9%, its highest in a quarter century. The labor force lost 539,000 non-farm jobs in April, down from March's 699,000 decline. A 72,000 rise in government jobs, mainly new workers for the 2010 Census, helped narrow the gulf."
But if you dig in those numbers carefully, you need to add Birth Death Assumption and seasonal adjustment, Census one-timers (because those are one-timers, temporary workers), plus revisions, bringing the REAL Adjusted Non-Farm Payroll job losses to 847,000 not 539,000.
And this was supposed to be WORSE THAN EXPECTED.

It is very obvious that they are manipulating their data, accounting rules, people to pump up this market, all that with the goal of restoring confidence so that the general unaware investors would put money back in the market;
in the mean time, the companies can then take advantage of the hype to raise capital at a higher price. No wonder everybody wants to raise capital.
Even MSFT who has tons of cash already, comes out raising capital to take advantage of the stock price, not that they need the cash! This proves that stock prices are inflated, companies know this, the smart people know this, but the average investors don't. Because of greed, they don't want to miss the boat by not investing.
Once they are all in, the market will become overbought and it's the little guys who will end up holding the bag.

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